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|previous: Mark Hammer Pools indicate a Kerry victory in N... -- 2/4/2004 7:10 PM||View Thread|
|2/5/2004 12:10 AM|
|anonymous||Re: Kerry leads Bush in Poll!!!|
The BIG question is how would a Democratic president either honour the commitments to Iraq and Afghanistan without seeming no different than the Republican administration before them
Similar to the way that commitments were handled during the withdrawal from Vietnam. The Dems refused to withdraw because it meant the admission of failure (strangely parallel to Bush's current situatiuon). The Republicans, namely Nixon, then took political control and withdrew the US military from Vietnam blaming the entire mess on the Dems. Could go down the same way in Iraq only with the obvious role reversal.
And to ensure that the deal looks compassionate for Iraqis who supported Americans, the US would then grant instant US citizenship to a few million Iraqis in a manner similar to what happened in Vietnam.
The real question would be: WHO GETS THE OIL? Underneath all of this is not a commitment to Iraq in my opinion. Rather it's a commitment to keep mideast oil flowing.
Here's a few facts to consider: 1) Royal Dutch Petroleum, the largest european oil major, recently took the unprecedented step of reducing it's estimated oil reserves by 20%. In other words, they are running out of oil sooner than everyone thought. 2) Exxon, the largest oil major in the US has been in talks with Yukos Oil of the Soviet Union allegededly to buy a substantial stake in the company to get new oil reserves. Exxon as well knows they are potentially running out of oil. 3) US government oil reserves are at a multi-year low. 4) China which has 25% of the world's population is going through an unprecedented economic boom that is making there citizens wealthy. Most chinese do not yet own cars -- but they soon will. This in turn will cause the current oil shortage to become more acute.
What this means is that the world is ripe for another oil embargo similar to the one that OPEC laid on the world in 1973 that crippled economic activity worldwide. It is not too far fetched to believe that oil prices will spike to well over $100 per barrel if something is not done soon. If you think the Iraqi war was not about oil and was done purely for "humanitarian" reasons then a reassessment is in order.
In sum, the Iraqi war is politics as usual based on first world economics. Withdrawal from Iraq will likewise be based on similar reasoning accomodated by some necessary changes in US leadership such as replacing Bush with Kerry.